The emergence of a virus variant: dynamics of a competition model with cross-immunity time-delay validated by wastewater surveillance data for COVID-19

TL;DR

This paper models the competition between virus strains with cross-immunity delay, analyzing stability conditions and applying the model to COVID-19 variants using wastewater data.

Contribution

It introduces a delay-inclusive competition model for virus strains and validates it with real wastewater surveillance data for COVID-19 variants.

Findings

Cross-immunity delay is harmless to stability.

Emerging strain's reproduction number must be lower for stability.

Model explains coexistence and dominance of virus strains.

Abstract

We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through a population that produces a mutant strain with the ability to infect individuals that were infected with the established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using a time delay, but is found to be a harmless delay. We provide some sufficient conditions that guarantee local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the two boundary equilibria when the two strains outcompete one another. It is shown that, due to the immune evasion of the emerging strain, the reproduction number of the emerging strain must be significantly lower than that of the established strain for the local stability of the established-strain-only boundary equilibrium. To analyze the unique coexistence equilibrium we apply a quasi steady-state argument to reduce the full model to a two-dimensional one that exhibits a global asymptotically stable established-strain-only equilibrium or global asymptotically stable coexistence equilibrium. Our results indicate that the basic reproduction numbers of both strains govern the overall dynamics, but in nontrivial ways due to the inclusion of cross-immunity. The model is applied to study the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in the presence of the Alpha variant using wastewater surveillance data from the Deer Island Treatment Plant in Massachusetts, USA.