Dynamical geography and transition paths of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic

TL;DR

This study models Sargassum movement in the tropical Atlantic using Markov chains and spectral analysis, revealing potential sources and pathways, including a belt along the GASB and routes from Africa to the Amazon.

Contribution

It introduces a data-driven Markov chain model combined with spectral analysis and Transition Path Theory to identify Sargassum pathways and sources in the Atlantic.

Findings

Identified a recurrent belt of high Sargassum density along the GASB.

Unveiled a basin of attraction in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Discovered two potential Sargassum invasion pathways from Africa.

Abstract

By analyzing a time-homogeneous Markov chain constructed using trajectories of undrogued drifting buoys from the NOAA's Global Drifter Program, we find that probability density can distribute in a manner that resembles very closely the recently observed recurrent belt of high Sargassum density in the tropical Atlantic between 5--10$^{\circ}$N, coined the \emph{Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt} (\emph{GASB}). A spectral analysis of the associated transition matrix further unveils a forward attracting almost-invariant set in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a corresponding basin of attraction disconnected from the Sargasso Sea, but including the nutrient-rich regions around the Amazon and Orinoco rivers mouths and also the upwelling system off the northern coast of west Africa. This represents a data-based inference of potential remote sources of Sargassum recurrently invading the Intra-Americas Seas (IAS). By further applying Transition Path Theory (TPT) on the data-derived Markov chain model, two potential pathways for Sargassum into the IAS from the upwelling system off the coast of Africa are revealed. One TPT-inferred pathway takes place along the GASB. The second pathway is more southern and slower, first going through the Gulf of Guinea, then across the tropical Atlantic toward the mouth of the Amazon River, and finally along the northeastern South American margin. The existence of such a southern TPT-inferred pathway may have consequences for bloom stimulation by nutrients from river runoff.