The economic and health impacts of contact tracing and quarantine programs

TL;DR

This study evaluates the effectiveness of contact tracing and quarantine programs for COVID-19, finding mandatory approaches outperform voluntary ones in reducing infections without harming economic activity, with political ideology influencing participation.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence comparing mandatory and voluntary contact tracing programs and their impacts on health and economy during COVID-19.

Findings

Mandatory programs reduce infections more effectively.

Voluntary programs are less effective than mandatory ones.

Economic activity remains stable across different intervention types.

Abstract

Contact tracing and quarantine programs have been one of the leading Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19. Some governments have relied on mandatory programs, whereas others embrace a voluntary approach. However, there is limited evidence on the relative effectiveness of these different approaches. In an interactive online experiment conducted on 731 subjects representative of the adult US population in terms of sex and region of residence, we find there is a clear ranking. A fully mandatory program is better than an optional one, and an optional system is better than no intervention at all. The ranking is driven by reductions in infections, while economic activity stays unchanged. We also find that political conservatives have higher infections and levels of economic activity, and they are less likely to participate in the contact tracing program.