Trust Calibration as a Function of the Evolution of Uncertainty in Knowledge Generation: A Survey

TL;DR

This survey explores how trust in visual analytics systems evolves with uncertainty propagation, emphasizing the role of visualization parameters and cognitive biases in shaping user confidence.

Contribution

It synthesizes literature across visual analytics, cognitive theory, and uncertainty to highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty propagation in trust calibration.

Findings

Uncertainty propagation affects user trust over the system's lifecycle.

Visualization parameters influence the interaction between uncertainty and cognitive biases.

Understanding these factors can improve trust calibration in visual analytics.

Abstract

User trust is a crucial consideration in designing robust visual analytics systems that can guide users to reasonably sound conclusions despite inevitable biases and other uncertainties introduced by the human, the machine, and the data sources which paint the canvas upon which knowledge emerges. A multitude of factors emerge upon studied consideration which introduce considerable complexity and exacerbate our understanding of how trust relationships evolve in visual analytics systems, much as they do in intelligent sociotechnical systems. A visual analytics system, however, does not by its nature provoke exactly the same phenomena as its simpler cousins, nor are the phenomena necessarily of the same exact kind. Regardless, both application domains present the same root causes from which the need for trustworthiness arises: Uncertainty and the assumption of risk. In addition, visual analytics systems, even more than the intelligent systems which (traditionally) tend to be closed to direct human input and direction during processing, are influenced by a multitude of cognitive biases that further exacerbate an accounting of the uncertainties that may afflict the user's confidence, and ultimately trust in the system. In this article we argue that accounting for the propagation of uncertainty from data sources all the way through extraction of information and hypothesis testing is necessary to understand how user trust in a visual analytics system evolves over its lifecycle, and that the analyst's selection of visualization parameters affords us a simple means to capture the interactions between uncertainty and cognitive bias as a function of the attributes of the search tasks the analyst executes while evaluating explanations. We sample a broad cross-section of the literature from visual analytics, human cognitive theory, and uncertainty, and attempt to synthesize a useful perspective.