Valuing Players Over Time

TL;DR

This paper introduces models to evaluate soccer players' performance over time, emphasizing the importance of analyzing performance as a dynamic, continuous process for better decision-making.

Contribution

It presents I-VAEP and O-VAEP models for action evaluation, and demonstrates how to analyze player ratings over time to assess consistency and development.

Findings

Identified best players and their performance evolution.

Developed volatility metrics for player consistency.

Created a player development curve for decision support.

Abstract

In soccer (or association football), players quickly go from heroes to zeroes, or vice-versa. Performance is not a static measure but a somewhat volatile one. Analyzing performance as a time series rather than a stationary point in time is crucial to making better decisions. This paper introduces and explores I-VAEP and O-VAEP models to evaluate actions and rate players' intention and execution. Then, we analyze these ratings over time and propose use cases to fundament our option of treating player ratings as a continuous problem. As a result, we present who were the best players and how their performance evolved, define volatility metrics to measure a player's consistency, and build a player development curve to assist decision-making.