A stochastic agent-based model to evaluate COVID-19 transmission influenced by human mobility

TL;DR

This paper introduces Mob-Cov, a stochastic agent-based model that incorporates multi-scale human mobility to better predict COVID-19 transmission and evaluate mitigation strategies across different spatial levels.

Contribution

The study presents a novel hierarchical mobility model, Mob-Cov, integrating local and global movements to improve COVID-19 transmission simulation accuracy.

Findings

Local crowdedness accelerates regional transmission.

Global travel facilitates international spread.

Mobility restrictions increase chances of zero-COVID state.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate assessment of the multi-scale human mobility and how they impact the infection through close contacts. By combining the stochastic agent-based modeling strategy and hierarchical structures of spatial containers corresponding to the notion of places in geography, this study proposes a novel model, Mob-Cov, to study the impact of human traveling behaviour and individual health conditions on the disease outbreak and the probability of zero COVID in the population. Specifically, individuals perform power-law type of local movements within a container and global transport between different-level containers. Frequent short movements inside a small-level container (e.g. a road or a county) and a large population size influence the local crowdedness of people, which accelerates the infection and regional transmission. Travels between large-level containers (e.g. cities and nations) facilitate global spread and outbreak. Moreover, dynamic infection and recovery in the population are able to drive the bifurcation of the system to a "zero-COVID" state or a "live with COVID" state, depending on the mobility patterns, population number and health conditions. Reducing total population and local people accumulation as well as restricting global travels help achieve zero-COVID. In summary, the Mob-Cov model considers more realistic human mobility in a wide range of spatial scales, and has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, low simulation cost, accuracy, ease of use and flexibility. It is a useful tool for researchers and politicians to investigate the pandemic dynamics and plan actions against the disease.