Impact of COVID-19 on human mobility and retail sales in the US

TL;DR

This study analyzes how COVID-19 lockdown policies affected human mobility and retail sales across US states, revealing significant variations linked to political, demographic, and geographic factors.

Contribution

It provides a detailed quantitative analysis of the relationship between government stringency, mobility, and retail sales, highlighting demographic and political influences on compliance and economic impact.

Findings

Retail sales declined by up to 38.9% in some states.

Mobility reductions are strongly linked to government stringency levels.

States with higher Democrat voting proportions showed greater compliance.

Abstract

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments had to rapidly implement lockdown policies that restricted human mobility to suppress the spread of the disease and reduce mortality. Because of the movement restrictions resulting from government responses to the pandemic, US retail sales declined by -22% in April 2020 compared to the previous year. This study looks at the stringency of government policies, mobility patterns, and implied compliance levels. The relationships between these variables and the influence on retail sales serve to understand past human behavior and prepare for future pandemics. Retail losses varied dramatically across the US states, from -1.6% in Mississippi to -38.9% in Hawaii. States in the west and northeast were most affected, while those in the south were relatively resilient. Regression was used to identify statistically significant state-level characteristics. The greatest losses occurred in states with a high percentage of Democrat voters in the 2020 Presidential Election and those with large populations. A 10% increase in the Democrat vote is associated with a 2.4% increase in retail sales loss. States with a high percentage of adults with less than a high school diploma were most resilient. The number of trips of less than one-mile per capita is defined as the mobility index as it has the greatest influence on retail sales, on average, across the US states. An increase of 10% in this mobility index is associated with a 4.6% increase in retail sales. All states were generally compliant and exhibited reduced mobility with increasing stringency. A rise of 1% in the stringency index is associated with a decline of 1% in the mobility index. States with a high percentage of Democrat voters, large populations, and located in the west tend to be most compliant. A 10% rise in the proportion of people voting Democrat is associated with a 5% increase in compliance.