National Power as Network Flow

TL;DR

This paper models international political power as a network flow, quantifying how states gain or lose power through constructive and destructive actions using economic and military data.

Contribution

It introduces a mathematical model that quantifies and forecasts the evolution of national power based on network flow dynamics.

Findings

Power flows can be modeled mathematically using economic and military data.

Constructive activities increase a state's power, while destructive activities decrease it.

The model can forecast changes in international power dynamics.

Abstract

Political power in the international context can be characterized as a fluid-like substance that circulates through a network of nation states. States can possess it as a stock quantity, reflected by their material capacity or national wealth; and they can transfer it as a flow quantity, through constructive or destructive action. Constructive activities like trade increase a state's power, while destructive ones like violent conflict reduce it. In this paper, we quantify these assertions to a first approximation using economic and military data, parameterizing a mathematical model that can forecast the evolution of power in the international system.