An MCMC Approach to the Three-dimensional Structure of the Milky Way Bulge using OGLE-IV $\delta$ Scuti Stars

TL;DR

This study uses MCMC analysis of OGLE-IV δ Scuti stars to model the three-dimensional structure of the Milky Way bulge, revealing its triaxial shape and bar orientation with refined distance estimates.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian MCMC approach to determine the Galactic bulge's shape and parameters using δ Scuti stars, improving upon previous models with refined statistical analysis.

Findings

Mean distance to Galactic center: 8.034 kpc

Bulge has a triaxial shape with specific axis ratios

Bar angle estimated at approximately 22 degrees

Abstract

We present an analysis of high latitude $\delta$ Scuti stars ($\left|b\right|> 1^{\circ}$) in the Galactic bulge region ($-8^{\circ}.3< l<9^{\circ}.4$) using a clean sample of the photometric data of $7,440$ stars recently released by the OGLE-IV project. The geometrical parameters of the bulge are determined based on Maximum Likelihood (ML) analysis in five-dimensional parameter space. More refined values of these parameters as well as their uncertainties are obtained from a fully Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. Approximating the bulge as an ellipsoid, the distribution of the number density of stars as a function of Galacto-centric distance has been modelled using three distribution functions: two Exponential ($\rm E_{1},\rm E_{2}$) types and one Gaussian ($\rm G$) type. Based on the AIC and BIC values, the exponential model $\rm E_{1}$ is chosen as the best statistical model for the parameter values obtained from the MCMC analysis. The MCMC analysis yields the following results: the mean distance to the Galactic center (GC) is found to be $R_{0}=8.034\pm0.012_{\rm stat}\pm0.586_{\rm sys}$ kpc; the bulge $\delta$ Scuti distribution has a triaxial shape with normalized ($a\equiv1$) axes ratios ($a:b:c$) as $1.000\pm 0.005:0.348\pm0.002:0.421\pm0.002$. Here $a$ is the semi-major axis lying in the Galactic plane and pointing towards us; $b$ and $c$ are the two semi-minor axes, the former lying in the Galactic plane and the later perpendicular to it. Smaller values of $b$ as compared to $a$ obtained for Galacto-centric distances $R\ge 2.0$~kpc indicate the presence of a bar-like structure of the bulge with a bar angle of $22^{\circ}.006\pm2^{\circ}.078$.