Effective approaches to disaster evacuation during a COVID-like pandemic

TL;DR

This study evaluates how evacuation strategies like the Diversion protocol and vaccine uptake can reduce COVID-19 transmission risks during disaster shelters, highlighting their effectiveness in delaying outbreaks and decreasing infections.

Contribution

It introduces a quantitative assessment of evacuation protocols and vaccination levels in mitigating pandemic spread during disasters using an epidemiological model.

Findings

Diversion protocol and high vaccine uptake reduce infection peaks.

Diversion delays pandemic outbreaks in shelters.

Age group impacts infection timing and severity.

Abstract

Since COVID-19 vaccines became available, no studies have quantified how different disaster evacuation strategies can mitigate pandemic risks in shelters. Therefore, we applied an age-structured epidemiological model, known as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, to investigate to what extent different vaccine uptake levels and the Diversion protocol implemented in Taiwan decrease infections and delay pandemic peak occurrences. Taiwan's Diversion protocol involves diverting those in self-quarantine due to exposure, thus preventing them from mingling with the general public at a congregate shelter. The Diversion protocol, combined with sufficient vaccine uptake, can decrease the maximum number of infections and delay outbreaks relative to scenarios without such strategies. When the diversion of all exposed people is not possible, or vaccine uptake is insufficient, the Diversion protocol is still valuable. Furthermore, a group of evacuees that consists primarily of a young adult population tends to experience pandemic peak occurrences sooner and have up to 180% more infections than does a majority elderly group when the Diversion protocol is implemented. However, when the Diversion protocol is not enforced, the majority elderly group suffers from up to 20% more severe cases than the majority young adult group.