A Robust Optimization Approach to a Real Humanitarian Cold Supply Chain Planning on the COVID-19 crisis

TL;DR

This paper develops a robust optimization model for Iran's COVID-19 vaccine supply chain, considering uncertainty, equity, and prioritization, to improve vaccination efficiency amid the pandemic.

Contribution

It introduces a robust optimization approach tailored for humanitarian vaccine supply chains under uncertainty, incorporating real data and prioritization strategies.

Findings

The model effectively manages uncertainty in vaccine supply and demand.

Prioritizing older populations improves vaccination fairness and efficiency.

Sensitivity analysis reveals the impact of budget and deprivation costs on supply chain performance.

Abstract

In this study, a vaccine supply chain model is developed considering the humanitarian aspects under uncertain conditions in Iran. There are three main components to supply the required vaccines for vaccination centers that can be designed and managed within three echelons: suppliers, distribution centers, and vaccination centers. Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical (IMHM), Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS), and private sector companies play the role of suppliers in the model. A robust optimization approach is employed to address real-world uncertainty and find a solution dealing with all uncertain data possibilities and supply chain equity. To this aim, the actual COVID-19 data of Iran is gathered, including data on five different types of vaccines used in Iran. Then, it is investigated how vaccination programs can be accomplished more efficiently by considering priority issues, transportation, holding costs, and deprivation costs in Tehran, Iran's largest city and one of the most populous cities globally. Next, a set of sensitivity analyses are conducted, assessing the variation of deprivation costs for different problem instances and the budgets assigned to each supplier. One of the critical assumptions in this research is prioritizing older-aged groups over younger-aged ones into account for receiving the vaccine.