Quantifying the temporal stability of international fertilizer trade networks

TL;DR

This study analyzes the temporal stability of international fertilizer trade networks for N, P, and K from 1990 to 2018, revealing increasing stability trends and differences between core and periphery stability.

Contribution

It introduces three valid methods to measure the stability of fertilizer trade networks over time, highlighting the stability patterns and resilience of different sub-networks.

Findings

Trade networks show increasing stability with globalization.

Large-weight sub-networks are more stable but vulnerable to extreme events.

Small-weight sub-networks are less stable but more resilient.

Abstract

The importance of fertilizers to agricultural production is undeniable, and most economies rely on international trade for fertilizer use. The stability of fertilizer trade networks is fundamental to food security. We use three valid methods to measure the temporal stability of the overall network and different functional sub-networks of the three fertilizer nutrients N, P and K from 1990 to 2018. The international N, P and K trade systems all have a trend of increasing stability with the process of globalization. The large-weight sub-network has relatively high stability, but is more likely to be impacted by extreme events. The small-weight sub-network is less stable, but has a strong self-healing ability and is less affected by shocks. Overall, all the three fertilizer trade networks exhibit a stable core with restorable periphery. The overall network stability of the three fertilizers is close, but the K trade has a significantly higher stability in the core part, and the N trade is the most stable in the non-core part.