Mod\'elisation spatio-temporelle de l'utilisation des masques par le grand public en Guadeloupe et en Martinique

TL;DR

This paper presents a deterministic spatio-temporal SIR model incorporating mask-wearing and mobility between Guadeloupe and Martinique to analyze Covid-19 spread, highlighting the importance of masks and movement patterns.

Contribution

It introduces a novel spatio-temporal compartmental model with mobility and mask usage, tailored for island environments, to better understand Covid-19 transmission dynamics.

Findings

Mask-wearing significantly reduces Covid-19 spread.

Mobility between islands influences epidemic propagation.

Model qualitatively replicates observed trends.

Abstract

In this article, we develop a deterministic compartmental model including the spatio-temporal aspect and the wearing of masks by the general public for the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. This model is based on the SIR model of Kermack and McKendrick and includes mobility terms that model the movement of individuals wearing masks between Guadeloupe andMartinique. The objective of the model is to analyze the effects of mobility and the wearing of masks by the general public on the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in these two regions.Numerical simulations of this model show the importance of wearing masks by the general public, even if they are not very inefficient, and indicate that the model is capable of qualitatively simulating the propagation trends of the Covid-19 epidemic. This work is part ofmy doctoral thesis, the subject of which is entitled {\guillemotleft} stochastic modeling of Covid-19 in an island environment taking into account the spatio-temporal aspect {\guillemotright}.