Precursors of Supernovae from Mass Eruption: Prospects for Early Warning of Nearby Core-collapse Supernovae

TL;DR

This paper models eruptive mass loss from red supergiants as potential early warnings for nearby supernovae, showing that such eruptions produce detectable infrared signals lasting hundreds of days before explosion.

Contribution

It provides the first theoretical radiation hydrodynamical simulations of pre-supernova mass eruptions, highlighting their observable infrared signatures as early supernova indicators.

Findings

Eruptions produce luminosity around 10^{39} erg/s in infrared.

Eruptions can last hundreds of days before supernova.

Infrared brightness peaks between -9 and -11 magnitude.

Abstract

Recent observations of a large fraction of Type II supernovae show traces of dense circumstellar medium (CSM) very close to the progenitor star. If this CSM is created by eruptive mass loss several months before core-collapse, the eruption itself may be visible as a precursor, helpful as an early warning of a near-future supernova. Using radiation hydrodynamical simulations based on the open-source code CHIPS, we theoretically model the emission from mass eruption of a red supergiant star. We find that for a modest mass eruption the luminosity is typically on the order of $10^{39}$ erg s$^{-1}$, can last as long as hundreds of days until the star explodes, and is mainly bright in the infrared (from -9 to -11 mag around peak). We discuss observational strategies to find these signatures from Galactic and local Type II supernovae.