Detail or uncertainty? Applying global sensitivity analysis to strike a balance in energy system models

TL;DR

This paper introduces a global sensitivity analysis method to compare the effects of model detail and uncertainty in energy system models, aiding better resource allocation and model development.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach that quantifies the impact of model detail versus uncertainty, guiding model refinement and prioritization of computational resources.

Findings

Spatial resolution has negligible impact on total system cost.

Spatial resolution significantly influences network capacity decisions.

The method effectively ranks modeling choices against input uncertainties.

Abstract

Energy systems modellers often resort to simplified system representations and deterministic model formulations (i.e., not considering uncertainty) to preserve computational tractability. However, reduced levels of detail and neglected uncertainties can both lead to sub-optimal system designs. In this paper, we present a novel method that quantitatively compares the impact of detail and uncertainty to guide model development and help prioritisation of the limited computational resources. By considering modelling choices as an additional 'uncertain' parameter in a global sensitivity analysis, the method determines their qualitative ranking against conventional input parameters. As a case study, the method is applied to a peer-reviewed heat decarbonisation model for the United Kingdom with the objective of assessing the importance of spatial resolution. The results show that while for the optimal total system cost the impact of spatial resolution is negligible, it is the most important factor determining the capacities of electricity, gas and heat networks.