On parameter identifiability in network-based epidemic models

TL;DR

This paper investigates the challenge of parameter identifiability in network-based epidemic models, showing that most parameters are weakly identifiable and multiple solutions can fit the data.

Contribution

It formalizes the identifiability problem in network epidemic models and characterizes conditions under which parameters cannot be uniquely determined.

Findings

Parameters are generally weakly identifiable in complex models.

Multiple parameter solutions can produce similar epidemic outcomes.

Analytical expressions help understand the identifiability landscape.

Abstract

Many models in mathematical epidemiology are developed with the aim to provide a framework for parameter estimation and then prediction. It is well-known that parameters are not always uniquely identifiable. In this paper we consider network-based mean-field models and explore the problem of parameter identifiability when observations about an epidemic are available. Making use of the analytical tractability of most network-based mean-field models, e.g., explicit analytical expressions for leading eigenvalue and final epidemic size, we set up the parameter identifiability problem as finding the solution or solutions of a system of coupled equations. More precisely, subject to observing/measuring growth rate and final epidemic size, we seek to identify parameter values leading to these measurements. We are particularly concerned with disentangling transmission rate from the network density. To do this we define strong and weak identifiability and we find that except for the simplest model, parameters cannot be uniquely determined, that is they are weakly identifiable. This means that there exists multiple solutions (a manifold of infinite measure) which give rise to model output that is close to the data. Identifying, formalising and analytically describing this problem should lead to a better appreciation of the complexity involved in fitting models with many parameters to data.