The Transform-o-meter: A method to forecast the transformative impact of innovation

TL;DR

The paper introduces the Transform-o-meter, a novel methodology designed to measure and forecast the transformative impact of innovations, including both material and immaterial, addressing a critical need in the era of transformative AI.

Contribution

It presents a new, adaptable method for assessing and predicting the impact of various innovations, serving as a foundational approach for future research and refinement.

Findings

The Transform-o-meter can be applied to diverse innovations.

It provides a first-step framework for impact forecasting.

The method is adaptable and open for further development.

Abstract

With the advent of Transformative Artificial Intelligence, it is now more important than ever to be able to both measure and forecast the transformative impact/potential of innovation. However, current methods fall short when faced with this task. This paper introduces the Transform-o-meter; a methodology that can be used to achieve the aforementioned goal, and be applied to any innovation, both material and immaterial. While this method can effectively be used for the mentioned purpose, it should be taken as a first approach; to be iterated, researched, and expanded further upon.