Does the Catalog of California Earthquakes, with Aftershocks Included, Contain Information about Future Large Earthquakes?

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that earthquake catalogs, including aftershocks, contain valuable information about future large earthquakes, challenging the idea that such events are entirely unpredictable.

Contribution

It applies machine learning to earthquake catalogs to reveal their potential in predicting large earthquakes, showing they hold significant information about future hazards.

Findings

Earthquake catalogs contain predictive information about large earthquakes.

Machine learning enhances understanding of earthquake predictability.

Major earthquakes are not entirely random and can be informed by catalog data.

Abstract

Yes. Interval statistics have been used to conclude that major earthquakes are random events in time and cannot be anticipated or predicted. Machine learning is a powerful new technique that enhances our ability to understand the information content of earthquake catalogs. We show that catalogs contain significant information on current hazard and future predictability for large earthquakes.