Mathematical modeling of the Chilean riots of 2019, an epidemiological non-local approach

TL;DR

This paper extends an epidemiological model to analyze the 2019 Chilean riots, incorporating Santiago's subway topology, but finds that population displacement mechanisms are essential for accurate spatial distribution modeling.

Contribution

It introduces a non-local epidemiological model tailored to Santiago's subway network to study riot dynamics, highlighting the importance of population displacement in spatial modeling.

Findings

Model captured temporal evolution of riots

Failed to reproduce spatial distribution accurately

Population displacement is crucial for spatial modeling

Abstract

During the second half of October 2019, Chile, and especially its capital city, Santiago, suffered from widespread violence with public and private infrastructure destruction. This work aims to expand an epidemiological non-local model that successfully described the French riots of 2005 to incorporate the topology of Santiago's subway network and explain the reported distribution of rioting activity in the city. Although the model reproduced the disorders' aggregated temporal evolution, it could not deliver results resembling the observed spatial distribution of activity on Santiago. The main reason for this failure can be attributed to the fact that the model lacks a population displacement mechanism, which seems vital to explain Santiago's unrest episodes.