Population estimation for child care centers through linear regressions

TL;DR

This paper presents a linear regression-based model to estimate future populations in child care centers, addressing the challenge of fluctuating attendance due to social factors, and implements it in a user-friendly spreadsheet.

Contribution

It introduces a simple, practical linear regression model for population forecasting in social care centers, facilitating planning and resource allocation.

Findings

Model provides reasonable population estimates month-to-month.

Implementation in spreadsheet makes it accessible for practitioners.

Addresses variability in social care center populations.

Abstract

This article arises as an alternative solution to the problem of estimating the future population of some care centers for children and adolescents at social risk. The population of these centers fluctuates from month to month due to various social, economic and political factors, so there is no way to calculate exactly how many children will enter and how many will leave. To make the estimate, a mathematical model was developed to estimate the population of the centers in the following month based on linear regressions and it was implemented in a spreadsheet to facilitate its use.