On the evolution of agricultural and non-agricultural produce flow network in India

TL;DR

This study analyzes the evolution of agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks in India from 2010 to 2018, revealing increased trade volume, dependency on key hubs, and differences in trade connectivity, informing resilient trade network design.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive network-based analysis of Indian inland trade evolution, highlighting key structural changes and dependencies over time.

Findings

Trade volume increased by 37% for agriculture and 87% for non-agriculture.

Connectivity did not significantly increase despite higher trade volumes.

Agricultural trade shows more balanced import-export relationships than non-agricultural trade.

Abstract

Rising economic instability and continuous evolution in international relations demand a self-reliant trade and commodity flow networks at regional scales to efficiently address the growing human needs of a nation. Despite its importance in securing India's food security, the potential advantages of inland trade remain unexplored. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of agricultural flows and contrast it with non-agricultural commodities flow across Indian states. The spatiotemporal evolution of both the networks for the period 2010 to 2018 was studied and compared using network properties along with the total traded value. Our results show an increase in annual traded volume by nearly 37 % and 87 %, respectively, for agriculture and non-agriculture trade. An increase in total trade volume without a significant increase in connectivity over the analyzed time-period is observed in both networks, reveals the over-reliance and increased dependency on particular export hubs. Our analysis further revealed a more homogeneous distribution between import and export connection nodes for agriculture trade compared to non-agriculture trade, where Indian states with high exports also have high imports. Overall our analysis provide a quantitative description of Indian inland trade as a complex network that could further us design resilient trade networks within the nation.