Point sources of ultra-high-energy neutrinos: minimalist predictions for near-future discovery

TL;DR

This paper develops a statistical framework to evaluate the discovery potential of ultra-high-energy neutrino point sources with upcoming telescopes like IceCube-Gen2, focusing on multiplet detection significance.

Contribution

It introduces a robust method to assess point-source detection significance and applies it to IceCube-Gen2, providing specific multiplet detection thresholds for discovery.

Findings

Detection of triplets or octuplets can achieve 3σ significance depending on source type.

Discovery potential depends on source steadiness and sky position.

Non-detection constrains source population properties.

Abstract

The discovery of ultra-high-energy neutrinos, with energies above 100 PeV, may soon be within reach of upcoming neutrino telescopes. We present a robust framework to compute the statistical significance of point-source discovery via the detection of neutrino multiplets. We apply it to the radio array component of IceCube-Gen2. To identify a source with $3\sigma$ significance, IceCube-Gen2 will need to detect a triplet, at best, and an octuplet, at worst, depending on whether the source is steady-state or transient, and on its position in the sky. The discovery, or absence, of sources significantly constrains the properties of the source population.