Semiparametric Estimation on Multi-treatment Causal Effects via Cross-Fitting

TL;DR

This paper introduces a generalized cross-fitting estimator for multi-treatment causal effects, enabling flexible machine learning methods with valid statistical inference under weak assumptions.

Contribution

It extends doubly robust estimation with cross-fitting from binary to multiple treatments, providing theoretical guarantees and efficiency bounds.

Findings

Estimator achieves semiparametric efficiency bound.

Simulation studies demonstrate good finite-sample performance.

Provides asymptotic confidence intervals for causal effects.

Abstract

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a golden standard for estimation of causal effects for decades. However, in many situations, randomized experiments are not feasible in practice so that practitioners need to rely on empirical investigation for causal reasoning. Causal inference via observational data is a challenging task since the knowledge of the treatment assignment mechanism is missing, which typically requires non-testable assumptions to make the inference possible. For several years, great effort has been devoted to the research of causal inference for binary treatments. In practice, it is also common to use observational data on multiple treatment comparisons. Within the potential outcomes framework, we propose a generalized cross-fitting estimator (GCF), which generalizes the doubly robust estimator with cross-fitting for binary treatment to multiple treatment comparisons and provides rigorous proofs on its statistical properties. This estimator permits the use of more flexible machine learning methods to model the nuisance parts, and based on relatively weak assumptions, while there is still a theoretical guarantee for valid statistical inference. We show the asymptotic properties of the GCF estimators, and provide the asymptotic simultaneous confidence intervals that achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound for average treatment effect. The performance of the estimator is accessed through simulation study based on the common evaluation metrics generally considered in the causal inference literature.