Dynamics and Stability under Iterated Sanctions and Counter-sanctions

TL;DR

This paper introduces a discrete dynamical model for analyzing the stability of two opposing agents under repeated sanctions and counter-sanctions, providing insights into international stability dynamics.

Contribution

It develops a simple, Osipov-Lanchester-inspired model with stability criteria applicable under full and uncertain information conditions.

Findings

Derived stability criteria for deterministic and stochastic cases

Qualitative conclusions on international stability preservation

Model offers a new framework for analyzing sanctions dynamics

Abstract

In the paper a simple discrete dynamical model for dynamics of two antagonistic agents (opponents) under iterated sanctions and counter-sanctions is proposed. The model is inspired with Osipov-Lanchester model for combats. Simple stability criteria are derived both for the full information case and for stochastic uncertainty case. The results provide some important qualitative conclusions that are interpreted in terms of international stability preservation.