On the Effects of Planetary Oblateness on Exoplanet Studies

TL;DR

This paper investigates how planetary oblateness affects exoplanet observations, showing that many planets could have detectable oblateness signals and that neglecting this can bias parameter estimates, especially with high-precision data.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of oblateness effects on transit signals, highlighting detection thresholds, biases from spherical models, and potential misinterpretations of transit timing variations.

Findings

Up to 100 planets could have detectable oblateness at <100ppm noise levels.

Fitting spherical models to oblate planets biases parameters by several standard deviations.

Oblateness can mimic signals of long-period companions in transit timing variations.

Abstract

When studying transiting exoplanets it is common to assume a spherical planet shape. However short rotational periods can cause a planet to bulge at its equator, as is the case with Saturn whose equatorial radius is almost 10% larger than its polar radius. As a new generation of instruments comes online, it is important to continually assess the underlying assumptions of models to ensure robust and accurate inferences. We analyze bulk samples of known transiting planets and calculate their expected signal strength if they were to be oblate. We find that for noise levels below 100ppm, as many as 100 planets could have detectable oblateness. We also investigate the effects of fitting spherical planet models to synthetic oblate lightcurves. We find that this biases the retrieved parameters by several standard deviations for oblateness values > 0.1-0.2. When attempting to fit an oblateness model to both spherical and oblate lightcurves, we find that the sensitivity of such fits is correlated with both the SNR as well as the time sampling of the data, which can mask the oblateness signal. For typical values of these quantities for Kepler observations, it is difficult to rule out oblateness values less than ~0.25. This results in an accuracy wall of 10-15% for the density of planets which may be oblate. Finally, we find that a precessing oblate planet has the ability to mimic the signature of a long-period companion via transit timing variations, inducing offsets at the level of 10s of seconds.