Insurgency as Complex Network: Image Co-Appearance and Hierarchy in the PKK

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel deep learning-based method to construct insurgent social networks from online image co-appearances, revealing that network centrality correlates with insurgent rank.

Contribution

It develops an innovative approach to analyze militant group structures using publicly available image data and demonstrates its effectiveness with PKK obituaries.

Findings

Network centrality correlates with insurgent rank.

Automated social network construction from images is feasible.

Large-scale image data can reveal insurgent hierarchy.

Abstract

Despite a growing recognition of the importance of insurgent group structure on conflict outcomes, there is very little empirical research thereon. Though this problem is rooted in the inaccessibility of data on militant group structure, insurgents frequently publish large volumes of image data on the internet. In this paper, I develop a new methodology that leverages this abundant but underutilized source of data by automating the creation of a social network graph based on co-appearance in photographs using deep learning. Using a trove of 19,115 obituary images published online by the PKK, a Kurdish militant group in Turkey, I demonstrate that an individual's centrality in the resulting co-appearance network is closely correlated with their rank in the insurgent group.