Implementation and validation of the FRi3D flux rope model in EUHFORIA

TL;DR

This paper integrates the FRi3D flux rope model into EUHFORIA to enhance CME magnetic field predictions at Earth, demonstrating improved accuracy over previous models through observation-based validation of a 2012 event.

Contribution

The paper introduces the implementation of the FRi3D flux rope model in EUHFORIA and validates its predictive capabilities using a real CME event, improving magnetic field and geoeffectiveness forecasts.

Findings

FRi3D improves magnetic field magnitude predictions by ~30%.

FRi3D enhances Bz prediction accuracy by ~70%.

Minimum Dst prediction improves by ~20% with FRi3D.

Abstract

The Flux Rope in 3D (FRi3D, Isavnin, 2016), a coronal mass ejection (CME) model with global three-dimensional (3D) geometry, has been implemented in the space weather forecasting tool EUHFORIA (Pomoell and Poedts, 2018). By incorporating this advanced flux rope model in EUHFORIA, we aim to improve the modelling of CME flank encounters and, most importantly, the magnetic field predictions at Earth. After using synthetic events to showcase FRi3D's capabilities of modelling CME flanks, we optimize the model to run robust simulations of real events and test its predictive capabilities. We perform observation-based modelling of the halo CME event that erupted on 12 July 2012. The geometrical input parameters are constrained using the forward modelling tool included in FRi3D with additional flux rope geometry flexibilities as compared to the pre-existing models. The magnetic field input parameters are derived using the differential evolution algorithm to fit FRi3D parameters to the in situ data at 1 AU. An observation-based approach to constrain the density of CMEs is adopted, in order to achieve a better estimation of mass corresponding to the FRi3D geometry. The CME is evolved in EUHFORIA's heliospheric domain and a comparison of FRi3D's predictive performance with the previously implemented spheromak CME in EUHFORIA is presented. For this event, FRi3D improves the modelling of the total magnetic field magnitude and Bz at Earth by ~30% and ~70%, respectively. Moreover, we compute the expected geoeffectiveness of the storm at Earth using an empirical Dst model and find that the FRi3D model improves the predictions of minimum Dst by ~20% as compared to the spheromak CME model. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the current implementation of FRi3D in EUHFORIA and propose possible improvements.