Predicting Safe Regions within Lava Flows over Topography

TL;DR

This paper introduces a simplified model to predict how topography influences lava flow behavior, including thickness, speed, and safe zones, with validation against a real-world eruption case.

Contribution

A novel shallow, isothermal model that quantifies topography's impact on lava flow dynamics and safe regions, validated with historical eruption data.

Findings

Depressions thicken and accelerate lava flow downstream.

Mounds divert lava, creating safe, lava-free zones.

Deep ponds in depressions delay flow acceleration.

Abstract

We present a shallow, isothermal, Newtonian model for the transient interaction of lava flows with topography. Numerical integrations and simple mathematical approximations are deployed to quantify how topography controls lava thicknesses and flow speeds. Considering idealised topographic features, we show that modest depressions thicken and accelerate the flow - even far downstream - whilst mounds have the opposite effect. However, deep ponds of lava form in depressions of sufficient amplitude, which introduces a long timescale for lava to fill the depression and hence the accelerated downstream flow may never be attained. Relatively large mounds completely divert the lava, providing protected lava-free regions for homes and infrastructure. There can, however, be hazardous, deep, fast flow around the edges of the mound, owing to diversion. Additionally, we show that our model accurately predicts the lava-free region that has been observed in the eruption 35 kyr ago at Marcath Volcano, Nevada.