Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST -- VI. Simulated lightcones and galaxy clustering predictions

TL;DR

This paper provides simulated galaxy lightcones and clustering predictions for JWST, aiding observation planning and interpretation, with validated clustering results up to redshift 7.5 and forecasts for higher redshifts.

Contribution

It introduces new simulated lightcones covering high redshifts up to 12, incorporating galaxy properties and clustering predictions for JWST survey planning.

Findings

Lightcones reproduce observed clustering from z=0.2 to 7.5.

Predicted galaxy counts and luminosity functions align with current measurements.

Provides high-redshift clustering forecasts for future JWST observations.

Abstract

In anticipation of the new era of high-redshift exploration marked by the commissioning of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we present two sets of galaxy catalogues that are designed to aid the planning and interpretation of observing programs. We provide a set of 40 wide-field lightcones with footprints spanning approximately ~ 1,000 sq. arcmin, containing galaxies up to z = 10, and a new set of 8 ultra-deep lightcones with 132 sq. arcmin footprints, containing galaxies up to z ~ 12 down to the magnitudes expected to be reached in the deepest JWST surveys. These mock lightcones are extracted from dissipationless N-body simulations and populated with galaxies using the well-established, computationally efficient Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation. We provide a wide range of predicted physical properties, and simulated photometry from NIRCam and many other instruments. We explore the predicted counts and luminosity functions and angular two-point correlation functions for galaxies in these simulated lightcones. We also explore the predicted field-to-field variance using multiple lightcone realizations. We find that these lightcones reproduce the available measurements of observed clustering from 0.2 < z < 7.5 very well. We provide predictions for galaxy clustering at high redshift that may be obtained from future JWST observations. All of the lightcones presented here are made available through a web-based, interactive data release portal https://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/group/sam-forecasts.