Modelling the Spread of SARS-CoV2 and its variants. Comparison with Real Data. Relations that have to be Satisfied to Achieve the Total Regression of the SARS-CoV2 Infection

TL;DR

This paper develops and validates detailed deterministic and stochastic models for COVID-19 transmission, incorporating lockdown, quarantine, and hospital effects, and compares these models with real data from multiple countries to understand conditions for virus eradication.

Contribution

It introduces realistic kinetic-type reaction models for COVID-19 spread, including hospital dynamics, and validates them against extensive real-world data, providing insights into virus eradication conditions.

Findings

Models accurately fit data from Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, and the US.

The models outperform simple logistic models after the initial pandemic phase.

Derived relationships indicate conditions necessary for virus disappearance.

Abstract

This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic deterministic and stochastic models for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which take into account the time-delay for recovery or death processes. Realistic dynamic equations for the entire process have been derived by adopting the so-called "kinetic-type reactions approach". The lockdown and the quarantine measures are modelled by some kind of inhibitor reactions where susceptible and infected individuals can be "trapped" into inactive states. The dynamics for the recovered people is obtained by accounting people who are only traced back to hospitalised infected people. To model the role of the Hospitals we take inspiration from the Michaelis-Menten's enzyme-substrate reaction model (the so-called "MM reaction") where the "enzyme" is associated to the "available hospital beds", the "substrate" to the "infected people", and the "product" to the "recovered people", respectively. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the relevant correlation functions and the probability density functions, have duly been evaluated. We validate our theoretical predictions with a large series of experimental data for Italy, Germany, France, Belgium and United States, and we also compare data for Italy and Belgium with the theoretical predictions of the logistic model. We found that our predictions are in good agreement with the real world since the onset of COVID 19, contrary to the the logistics model that only applies in the first days of the pandemic. In the final part of the work, we can find the (theoretical) relationships that should be satisfied to obtain the disappearance of the virus.