Computing optical meteor flux using Global Meteor Network data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new method to compute optical meteor shower fluxes using Global Meteor Network data, enabling better predictions of meteoroid impact risks to spacecraft.

Contribution

A novel algorithm for calculating meteor shower fluxes from video observations is developed and validated against known data, improving monitoring of meteoroid streams.

Findings

Flux levels of the 2021 Perseids comparable to past major outbursts.

High variability in Quadrantid flux suggests different stream components.

Geminids exhibit a double peak in flux near maximum activity.

Abstract

Meteor showers and their outbursts are the dominant source of meteoroid impact risk to spacecraft on short time scales. Meteor shower prediction models depend on historical observations to produce accurate forecasts. However, the current lack of quality and persistent world-wide monitoring at optical meteoroid sizes has left some recent major outbursts poorly observed. A novel method of computing meteor shower flux is developed and applied to Global Meteor Network data. The method is verified against previously published observations of the Perseids and the Geminids. The complete mathematical and algorithmic details of computing meteor shower fluxes from video observations are described. As an example application of our approach, the flux measurements of the 2021 Perseid outburst, the 2020-2022 Quadrantids, and 2020-2021 Geminids are presented. The flux of the 2021 Perseids reached similar levels to the 1991-1994 and 2016 outbursts (ZHR $\sim$ 280). The flux of the Quadrantids shows high year-to-year variability in the core of the stream while the longer lasting background activity is less variable, consistent with an age difference between the two components. The Geminids show a double peak in flux near the time of peak.