Nonlinear Dynamic analysis of vector-host model for Zika infection with predatory fish Gambusia Affinis

TL;DR

This study models Zika virus dynamics incorporating predatory fish Gambusia Affinis to control mosquito vectors, showing that biological control can effectively reduce infection when combined with other measures.

Contribution

It introduces a nine-compartment vector-host model with predatory fish, analyzing stability and demonstrating the potential of biological control in managing Zika infection.

Findings

Predatory fish can eliminate infection when R0 is near but above unity.

Eradication of mosquitoes is essential to eliminate Zika.

Biological control reduces infection prevalence in simulations.

Abstract

In the present paper, we study the dynamics of a nine compartmental vector-host model for Zika virus infection where the predatory fish Gambusia Affinis is introduced into the system to control the zika infection by preying on the vector. The system has six practically feasible equilibrium points where four of them are disease-free, and the rest are endemic. We discuss the existence and stability conditions for the equilibria. We find that when sexual transmission of zika comes to a halt then in absence of mosquitoes infection cannot persist. Hence, one needs to eradicate mosquitoes to eradicate infection. Moreover, we deduce that in the case of zika infection pushing the basic reproduction number below unity is next to impossible. Therefore, O_0, the mosquito survival threshold parameter, and O, the mosquito survival threshold parameter with predation play a crucial role in getting rid of the infection in respective cases since mosquitoes cannot survive when these are less than unity. Sensitivity analysis shows the importance of reducing mosquito biting rate and mutual contact rates between vector and host. It exhibits the importance of increasing the natural mortality rate of vectors to reduce the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulation shows that when the basic reproduction number is close but greater than unity, the introduction of a small amount of predatory fish Gambusia Affinis can completely swipe off the infection. In case of high transmission or high basic reproduction number, this fish increases the susceptible human population and keeps the infection under control, hence, prohibiting it from becoming an epidemic.