The Fermi paradox: Impact of astrophysical processes and dynamical evolution

TL;DR

This paper models the development of extraterrestrial civilizations considering astrophysical and dynamical factors, showing these effects can significantly influence the likelihood and distribution of such civilizations in the galaxy.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamical model incorporating self-destruction, colonization, and astrophysical destruction mechanisms, providing new insights into the distribution of extraterrestrial civilizations.

Findings

Astrophysical effects can alter civilization numbers by a factor of 2 or more.

Civilization fractions can range between 10^{-2} and 10^{-7}.

Large inter-civilization distances are possible, especially with persistence phenomena.

Abstract

The Fermi paradox has given rise to various attempts to explain why no evidence of extraterrestrial civilisations was found so far on Earth and in our Solar System. Here, we present a dynamical model for the development of such civilisations, which accounts for self-destruction, colonisation and astrophysical destruction mechanisms of civilisations including gamma-ray bursts, type Ia and type II supernovae as well as radiation from the supermassive black hole. We adopt conservative estimates regarding the efficiency of such processes and find that astrophysical effects can influence the development of intelligent civilisations and change the number of systems with such civilisations by roughly a factor of 2; potentially more if the feedback is enhanced. Our results show that non-equilibrium evolution allows for solutions in-between extreme cases such as "rare Earth" or extreme colonisation, including scenarios with civilisation fractions between 10^{-2} and 10^{-7}. These would imply still potentially large distances to the next such civilisations, particularly when persistence phenomena are being considered. As previous studies, we confirm that the main uncertainties are due to the lifetime of civilisations as well as the assumed rate of colonisation. For SETI-like studies, we believe that unbiased searches are needed considering both the possibilities that the next civilisations are nearby or potentially very far away.