Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns

TL;DR

This paper models how time-varying costs of social distancing, influenced by fatigue and policies, affect epidemic waves, highlighting that public policy changes can trigger second waves and that early strict lockdowns may have adverse long-term effects.

Contribution

It introduces a behavioral SIR model with dynamic distancing costs, analyzing how fatigue and policies influence epidemic resurgence and policy effectiveness.

Findings

Steep increases in distancing cost can trigger second waves.

Distancing fatigue alone cannot cause a second wave.

Lifting policies abruptly can lead to rapid disease spread due to fatigue.

Abstract

We study a behavioral SIR model with time-varying costs of distancing. The two main causes of the variation in the cost of distancing we explore are distancing fatigue and public policies (lockdowns). We show that for a second wave of an epidemic to arise, a steep increase in distancing cost is necessary. Distancing fatigue cannot increase the distancing cost sufficiently fast to create a second wave. However, public policies that discontinuously affect the distancing cost can create a second wave. With that in mind, we characterize the largest change in the distancing cost (due to, for example, lifting a public policy) that will not cause a second wave. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis of public policies under distancing fatigue and show that a strict lockdown at the beginning of an epidemic (as, for example, recently in China) can lead to unintended adverse consequences. When the policy is lifted the disease spreads very fast due to the accumulated distancing fatigue of the individuals causing high prevalence levels.