Forecasting COVID- 19 cases using Statistical Models and Ontology-based Semantic Modelling: A real time data analytics approach

TL;DR

This paper presents a real-time data analytics approach combining statistical time series models and ontology-based semantic modeling to forecast COVID-19 cases and assess individual risk levels for better decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces an integrated framework using SARIMA, FBProphet, and ontology-based reasoning for COVID-19 prediction and individual risk assessment, enhancing accuracy and personalized insights.

Findings

SARIMA outperforms FBProphet in forecasting accuracy

The model classifies individuals into five COVID risk categories

Ontology-based reasoning provides tailored diagnosis and precautions

Abstract

SARS-COV-19 is the most prominent issue which many countries face today. The frequent changes in infections, recovered and deaths represents the dynamic nature of this pandemic. It is very crucial to predict the spreading rate of this virus for accurate decision making against fighting with the situation of getting infected through the virus, tracking and controlling the virus transmission in the community. We develop a prediction model using statistical time series models such as SARIMA and FBProphet to monitor the daily active, recovered and death cases of COVID-19 accurately. Then with the help of various details across each individual patient (like height, weight, gender etc.), we designed a set of rules using Semantic Web Rule Language and some mathematical models for dealing with COVID19 infected cases on an individual basis. After combining all the models, a COVID-19 Ontology is developed and performs various queries using SPARQL query on designed Ontology which accumulate the risk factors, provide appropriate diagnosis, precautions and preventive suggestions for COVID Patients. After comparing the performance of SARIMA and FBProphet, it is observed that the SARIMA model performs better in forecasting of COVID cases. On individual basis COVID case prediction, approx. 497 individual samples have been tested and classified into five different levels of COVID classes such as Having COVID, No COVID, High Risk COVID case, Medium to High Risk case, and Control needed case.