A stylized fact on the Mexico's mandate revocation 2022 that remains the 2006 presidential elections/ Un hecho estilizado en la revocaci\'on de mandato en M\'exico que recuerda las presidenciales de 2006

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the vote distribution in Mexico's 2022 revocation referendum, finding it follows a Gamma distribution similar to past PRI election results, and proposes models based on TSP and Fokker-Planck equations.

Contribution

It identifies a Gamma distribution pattern in vote data and introduces two novel models to explain this behavior, linking complex vote dynamics to TSP and Fokker-Planck frameworks.

Findings

Vote distribution for NO is similar to PRI election patterns.

Vote distribution is compatible with a Gamma distribution.

Two models (TSP and Fokker-Planck) are proposed to explain the distribution.

Abstract

Vote processes are the results of several complex interactions which are hard to separate in order to understand its role in the final result. The revocatory exercise performed in Mexico in 2022 allows an approximation to the Mexican dynamics of vote. Being a binary election (in principle) and the vote was mainly due to the political party in the government and the coercion of vote we have mainly only two dynamics of vote. In this work I report that the vote distribution for the NO at urn scale is similar to the one that appears in several elections for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI for his Spanish acronym) and it is compatible with a Gamma distribution. We discuss similarities and two possible models for such a behavior, one based on the Traveling Salesperson Problem and other on a Fokker-Planck equation. Las votaciones son el resultado de varias interacciones complejas y que resulta dif\'icil de separar para entender el papel que juegan en el resultado final. El ejercicio revocatorio llevado a cabo en M\'exico en el a\~no 2022 permite una aproximaci\'on acotada a la din\'amica de voto en M\'exico. Pues, en principio, es binaria y la votaci\'on fue fundamentalmente debida al partido en el gobierno y a la coerci\'on del voto, siendo estas las principales din\'amicas de voto. En \'este trabajo reportamos que la distribuci\'on de voto por casilla para el NO que es parecida a la distribuci\'on que ha aparecido en diversas elecciones en votos para el Partido Revolucionario Institucional y es compatible con una distribuci\'on Gamma. Se discuten sus similitudes y dos posibles modelos para tal comportamiento, uno basado en el Problema del Agente Viajero (TSP, por sus sigla en ingl\'es) y otro en una ecuaci\'on de Fokker-Planck.