Comparison of theoretical approaches for epidemic processes with waning immunity in complex networks

TL;DR

This study compares two mean-field theories for modeling epidemic processes with waning immunity on networks, finding that recurrent dynamical message-passing (rDMP) better captures epidemic thresholds and localization patterns than pair quenched mean-field theory (PQMF).

Contribution

The paper evaluates and compares the accuracy of rDMP and PQMF mean-field approaches for SIRS epidemic models on networks with waning immunity, highlighting rDMP's superior performance.

Findings

rDMP outperforms PQMF for long waning immunity times.

Finite epidemic thresholds are observed for γ > 3 in simulations and rDMP.

Localization of epidemic prevalence differs between theories, with real patterns lying between them.

Abstract

The role of waning immunity in basic epidemic models on networks has been undervalued while being noticeable fundamental for real epidemic outbreaks. One central question is which mean-field approach is more accurate in describing the epidemic dynamics. We tackled this problem considering the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on networks. Two pairwise mean-field theories, one based on recurrent dynamical message-passing (rDMP) and the other on the pair quenched mean-field theory (PQMF), are compared with extensive stochastic simulations on large networks of different levels of heterogeneity. For waning immunity times longer than or comparable with the recovering time, rDMP outperforms PQMF theory on power-law networks with degree distribution $P(k) \sim k^{-\gamma}$. In particular, for $\gamma > 3$, the epidemic threshold observed in simulations is finite, in qualitative agreement with rDMP, while PQMF leads to an asymptotically null threshold. The critical epidemic prevalence for $\gamma > 3$ is localized in a finite set of vertices in the case of the PQMF theory. In contrast, the localization happens in a subextensive fraction of the network in rDMP theory. Simulations, however, indicate that localization patterns of the actual epidemic lay between the two mean-field theories, and improved theoretical approaches are necessary to understanding the SIRS dynamics.