Grazing bifurcations and transitions between periodic states of the PP04 model for the glacial cycle

TL;DR

This paper investigates how grazing bifurcations cause transitions between periodic states in a climate model of glacial cycles, revealing mechanisms behind observed climate transitions like the Mid-Pleistocene-Transition.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of grazing bifurcations in the PP04 climate model and their role in transitions between periodic glacial states.

Findings

Grazing bifurcations explain transitions between periodic climate states.

Transitions resemble the Mid-Pleistocene-Transition.

Parameter variations induce grazing events affecting system dynamics.

Abstract

We look at the periodic behaviour of the Earth's glacial cycles and the transitions between different periodic states when either external parameters (such as $\omega$) or internal parameters (such as $d$) are varied. We model this using the PP04 model of climate change. This is a forced discontinuous Filippov (non-smooth) dynamical system. When periodically forced this has co-existing periodic orbits. We find that the transitions in this system are mainly due to grazing events, leading to grazing bifurcations. An analysis of the grazing bifurcations is given and the impact of these on the domains of attraction and regions of existence of the periodic orbits is determined under various changes in the parameters of the system. Grazing transitions arise for general variations in the parameters (both internal and external) of the PP04 model. We find that the grazing transitions between the period orbits resemble those of the Mid-Pleistocene-Transition.