Estimating the prevalence of malicious extraterrestrial civilizations

TL;DR

This paper estimates the likelihood of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations invading Earth, using human invasion history and energy growth data, concluding the risk is significantly lower than asteroid impact probabilities.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method to estimate extraterrestrial invasion probability based on human history, energy use, and military capabilities, providing a quantitative risk assessment.

Findings

Invasion probability is two orders of magnitude lower than asteroid impact risk.

Provides a framework for international debate on interstellar messaging.

Uses historical invasion data and energy growth to inform extraterrestrial risk estimates.

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide an estimation of the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations through an extrapolation of the probability that we, as the human civilization, would attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet once we become a Type-1 civilization in the Kardashev Scale capable of nearby interstellar travel. The estimation is based on the world's history of invasions in the last century, the military capabilities of the countries involved, and the global growth rate of energy consumption. Upper limits of standard deviations are used in order to obtain the estimated probability of extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization whose planet we send a message to. Results show that such probability is two orders of magnitude lower than the impact probability of a planet-killer asteroid. These findings could serve as a starting point for an international debate about sending the first serious interstellar radio messages to nearby potentially habitable planets.