An Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Method that Accounts for Right-censoring for Causal Inference with Multiple Treatments and a Binary Outcome

TL;DR

This paper introduces CIPWR, a novel inverse probability weighted regression method that effectively addresses confounding and right-censoring in observational studies with multiple treatments and binary outcomes, improving causal effect estimation.

Contribution

The paper proposes CIPWR, a new estimator that combines inverse probability weighting with regression to handle both confounding and right-censoring, with proven double robustness and asymptotic properties.

Findings

CIPWR demonstrates superior finite sample performance in simulations.

Application to prostate cancer data illustrates its practical utility.

CIPWR maintains consistency when either outcome or treatment and censoring models are correctly specified.

Abstract

Comparative effectiveness research often involves evaluating the differences in the risks of an event of interest between two or more treatments using observational data. Often, the post-treatment outcome of interest is whether the event happens within a pre-specified time window, which leads to a binary outcome. One source of bias for estimating the causal treatment effect is the presence of confounders, which are usually controlled using propensity score-based methods. An additional source of bias is right-censoring, which occurs when the information on the outcome of interest is not completely available due to dropout, study termination, or treatment switch before the event of interest. We propose an inverse probability weighted regression-based estimator that can simultaneously handle both confounding and right-censoring, calling the method CIPWR, with the letter C highlighting the censoring component. CIPWR estimates the average treatment effects by averaging the predicted outcomes obtained from a logistic regression model that is fitted using a weighted score function. The CIPWR estimator has a double robustness property such that estimation consistency can be achieved when either the model for the outcome or the models for both treatment and censoring are correctly specified. We establish the asymptotic properties of the CIPWR estimator for conducting inference, and compare its finite sample performance with that of several alternatives through simulation studies. The methods under comparison are applied to a cohort of prostate cancer patients from an insurance claims database for comparing the adverse effects of four candidate drugs for advanced stage prostate cancer.