The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) Model

TL;DR

The PROSPER model offers a probabilistic approach to forecasting Solar Energetic Particle events by analyzing solar flare and coronal mass ejection data, integrated into a system for operational nowcasting and historical analysis.

Contribution

It introduces a novel probabilistic model for SEP forecasting that combines multiple solar event characteristics and is integrated into an operational warning system.

Findings

Validated with archived data showing accurate probability predictions

Successfully integrated into the ASPECS operational tool

Enables both real-time nowcasting and historical case analysis

Abstract

The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e. E$>$10, $>$30 and $>$100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed) and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational Advanced Solar Particle Event Casting System (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP Advanced Warning System (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run on demand functionality.