Using Deep Learning-based Features Extracted from CT scans to Predict Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients

TL;DR

This study develops a deep learning-based approach combining CT scan features and EHR data to predict ICU admission and mortality risk in COVID-19 patients, aiding resource allocation and clinical decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a novel multi-modal feature extraction method from CT scans and EHR data for predicting COVID-19 patient outcomes, demonstrating improved predictive performance.

Findings

Achieved AUC of 0.77 for ICU admission prediction.

Achieved AUC of 0.73 for death prediction.

Validated the effectiveness of combining imaging and clinical data.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on day-to-day life. Tackling the disease by providing the necessary resources to the affected is of paramount importance. However, estimation of the required resources is not a trivial task given the number of factors which determine the requirement. This issue can be addressed by predicting the probability that an infected patient requires Intensive Care Unit (ICU) support and the importance of each of the factors that influence it. Moreover, to assist the doctors in determining the patients at high risk of fatality, the probability of death is also calculated. For determining both the patient outcomes (ICU admission and death), a novel methodology is proposed by combining multi-modal features, extracted from Computed Tomography (CT) scans and Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Deep learning models are leveraged to extract quantitative features from CT scans. These features combined with those directly read from the EHR database are fed into machine learning models to eventually output the probabilities of patient outcomes. This work demonstrates both the ability to apply a broad set of deep learning methods for general quantification of Chest CT scans and the ability to link these quantitative metrics to patient outcomes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by testing it on an internally curated dataset, achieving a mean area under Receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.77 on ICU admission prediction and a mean AUC of 0.73 on death prediction using the best performing classifiers.