Can transit investments in low-income neighbourhoods increase transit use? Exploring the nexus of income, car-ownership, and transit accessibility in Toronto

TL;DR

Investing in transit in low-income Toronto neighborhoods can boost transit use, especially among car-owning households, and help reduce car dependency, aligning social equity with environmental sustainability.

Contribution

This study provides new insights into how transit accessibility improvements influence transit use among low-income households with varying car ownership in Toronto.

Findings

Low-income households with cars are more responsive to transit accessibility improvements.

Transit use drops sharply among low-income households with cars in auto-centric areas.

Enhancing transit in low-income inner suburbs can increase ridership and support equity and sustainability goals.

Abstract

Transportation equity advocates recommend improving public transit in low-income neighbourhoods to alleviate socio-spatial inequalities and increase quality of life. However, transportation planners often overlook transit investments in neighbourhoods with "transit-captive" populations because they are assumed to result in less mode-shifting, congestion relief, and environmental benefits, compared to investments that aim to attract choice riders in wealthier communities. In North American cities, while many low-income households are already transit users, some also own and use private vehicles. It suggests that transit improvements in low-income communities could indeed result in more transit use and less car use. Accordingly, the main objective of this article is to explore the statistical relationship between transit use and transit accessibility as well as how this varies by household income and vehicle ownership in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). Using stratified regression models, we find that low-income households with one or more cars per adult have the most elastic relationship between transit accessibility and transit use; they are more likely to be transit riders if transit improves. However, we confirm that in auto-centric areas with poor transit, the transit use of low-income households drops off sharply as car ownership increases. On the other hand, a sensitivity analysis suggests more opportunities for increasing transit ridership among car-deficit households when transit is improved. These findings indicate that improving transit in low-income inner suburbs, where most low-income car-owning households are living, would align social with environmental planning goals.