Validation of a motion model for soccer players' sprint by means of tracking data

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the Fujimura-Sugihara motion model for soccer players' sprints using tracking data, confirming its circular arrival region and initial speed dependence, and proposes parameter estimation methods from real data.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative validation of the Fujimura-Sugihara model with real tracking data and introduces a method to estimate model parameters directly from data.

Findings

Arrival region is circular, matching the model's prediction.

Initial speed dependence aligns with the model's solution.

Parameter estimation method from tracking data is proposed.

Abstract

In soccer game analysis, the widespread availability of play-by-play and tracking data has made it possible to test mathematical models that have been discussed mainly theoretically. One of the essential models in soccer game analysis is a motion model that predicts the arrival point of a player in $ t $ s. Although many space evaluation and pass prediction methods rely on motion models, the validity of each has not been fully clarified. This study focuses on the motion model proposed by Fujimura and Sugihara (Fujimura-Sugihara model) under sprint conditions based on the equation of motion. A previous study indicated that the Fujimura-Sugihara model is ineffective for soccer games because it generates a circular arrival region. This study aims to examine the validity of the Fujimura-Sugihara model using soccer tracking data. Specifically, we quantitatively compare the arrival regions of players between the model and real data. We show that the boundary of the player's arrival region is circular rather than elliptical, which is consistent with the model. We also show that the initial speed dependence of the arrival region satisfies the solution of the model. Furthermore, we propose a method for estimating valid kinetic parameters in the model directly from tracking data and discuss the limitations of the model for soccer games based on the estimated parameters.