On Sea-Level Change in Coastal Areas

TL;DR

This study analyzes sea-level variations using SSA, revealing periodicities linked to planetary motions and their potential influence on Earth's rotation and pressure systems, with implications for understanding long-term climate and geophysical processes.

Contribution

It identifies planetary-periodic components in sea-level, pressure, and polar motion data, suggesting physical links and the importance of planetary influences on Earth's geophysical variations.

Findings

Sea-level has increased by 90 mm from 1860 to 2020.

Multiple periodicities correspond to Jovian planets' orbital periods.

Most variance in signals is explained by first SSA components.

Abstract

Variations in sea-level, based on tide gauge data (GSLTG) and on combining tide gauges and satellite data (GSLl) are subjected to singular spectrum analysis (SSA), to determine their trends and periodic or quasi-periodic components. GLSTG increases by 90 mm from 1860 to 2020, a contribution of 0.56 mm/yr to the mean rise rate. Annual to multi-decadal periods of ~90/80, 60, 30, 20, 10/11, and 4/5 years are found in both GSLTG and GSLl. These periods are commensurable periods of the Jovian planets, combinations of the periods of Neptune (165 yr), Uranus (84 yr), Saturn (29 yr) and Jupiter (12 yr). These same periods are encountered in sea-level changes, motion of the rotation pole RP and evolution of global pressure GP, suggesting physical links. The first SSA components comprise most of the signal variance: 95% for GSLTG, 89% for GSLI, 98% for GP, 75% for RP. Laplace derived the Liouville-Euler equations that govern the rotation and translation of the rotation axis of any celestial body. He emphasized that one must consider the orbital kinetic moments of all planets in addition to gravitational attractions and concluded that the Earth's rotation axis should undergo motions that carry the combinations of periods of the Sun, Moon and planets. Almost all the periods found in the SSA components of sea-level (GSLl and GSLTG), global pressure (GP) and polar motion (RP), of their modulations and their derivatives can be associated with the Jovian planets. It would be of interest to search for data series with longer time spans, that could allow one to test whether the trends themselves could be segments of components with still longer periodicities (e.g. 175 yr Jose cycle).