Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes

TL;DR

This study reveals a significant correlation between cosmic ray detection rates and global seismic activity, with a two-week lag and a periodicity linked to the solar cycle, suggesting potential for earthquake early warning.

Contribution

First demonstration of a correlation between cosmic ray variations and seismic activity, highlighting a possible precursor signal for earthquake prediction.

Findings

Cosmic ray detection rates correlate with seismic activity with a two-week lag.

The correlation exhibits a periodicity similar to the solar cycle.

The effect's significance exceeds 6 sigma at local maxima.

Abstract

The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system against earthquakes. Here we show for the first time that the average variation of the cosmic ray detection rates correlates with the global seismic activity to be observed with a time lag of approximately two weeks, and that the significance of the effect varies with a periodicity resembling the undecenal solar cycle, with a shift in phase of around three years, exceeding 6 sigma at local maxima. The precursor characteristics of the observed correlations point to a pioneer perspective of an early warning system against earthquakes.