Measurements of the Hubble Constant with a Two Rung Distance Ladder: Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

TL;DR

This study measures the Hubble constant using a two-rung distance ladder with Cepheid variables, addressing systematic uncertainties and the Hubble tension, resulting in a value of approximately 73 km/s/Mpc.

Contribution

It introduces a new approach to measure H0 using only nearby Cepheid distances and models systematic uncertainties related to sample selection and peculiar velocities.

Findings

H0 measured as 73.1 km/s/Mpc with uncertainties

Systematic uncertainties from sample selection are significant

Results are in 2.6 sigma tension with Planck measurements

Abstract

The three rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz < 3300 km /s , instead of any, more distant Type Ia supernovae, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are calibrated geometrically in the Milky Way, NGC 4258, and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Peculiar velocities are a significant source of systematic uncertainty at z $\sim$ 0.01, and we present a formalism for both mitigating and quantifying their effects, making use of external reconstructions of the density and velocity fields in the nearby universe. We identify a significant source of uncertainty originating from different assumptions about the selection criteria of this sample, whether distance or redshift limited, as it was assembled over three decades. Modeling these assumptions yields central values ranging from H0 = 71.8 to 77.0 km/s/Mpc. Combining the four best fitting selection models yields H0 = 73.1 (+2.6/-2.3) km/s/Mpc as a fiducial result, at $2.6\sigma$ tension with Planck. While Type Ia supernovae are essential for a precise measurement of H0, unknown systematics in these supernovae are unlikely to be the source of the Hubble tension