Quantifying protocols for safe school activities

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of different COVID-19 safety protocols in schools, emphasizing mask quality and monitoring to enable safe reopening even with low vaccination rates.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative assessment of how mask quality and monitoring impact infection spread in schools under various vaccination scenarios.

Findings

Low-quality masks lead to a fivefold increase in cases.

Good masks and N95s reduce the increase to threefold.

Proper measures enable safe classes despite low vaccination coverage.

Abstract

By the peak of COVID-19 restrictions on April 8, 2020, up to 1.5 billion students across 188 countries were by the suspension of physical attendance in schools. Schools were among the first services to reopen as vaccination campaigns advanced. With the emergence of new variants and infection waves, the question now is to find safe protocols for the continuation of school activities. We need to understand how reliable these protocols are under different levels of vaccination coverage, as many countries have a meager fraction of their population vaccinated, including Uganda where the coverage is about 8\%. We investigate the impact of face-to-face classes under different protocols and quantify the surplus number of infected individuals in a city. Using the infection transmission when schools were closed as a baseline, we assess the impact of physical school attendance in classrooms with poor air circulation. We find that (i) resuming school activities with people only wearing low-quality masks leads to a near fivefold city-wide increase in the number of cases even if all staff is vaccinated, (ii) resuming activities with students wearing good-quality masks and staff wearing N95s leads to about a threefold increase, (iii) combining high-quality masks and active monitoring, activities may be carried out safely even with low vaccination coverage. These results highlight the effectiveness of good mask-wearing. Compared to ICU costs, high-quality masks are inexpensive and can help curb the spreading. Classes can be carried out safely, provided the correct set of measures are implemented.