The Stability of Transient Relationships

TL;DR

This study reveals that the communication volume with transient relationships remains stable over time, and early call patterns can predict the relationship's longevity across different countries and life stages.

Contribution

It demonstrates that transient relationship communication does not decay systematically and introduces a method to predict relationship duration from early call data.

Findings

Communication volume with transient alters remains stable over time.

Longer-lasting alters receive more calls from the outset.

Early call volume can predict the lifetime of transient relationships.

Abstract

In contrast to long-term relationships, far less is known about the temporal evolution of transient relationships, although these constitute a substantial fraction of people's communication networks. Previous literature suggests that ratings of relationship emotional intensity decay gradually until the relationship ends. Using mobile phone data from three countries (US, UK, and Italy), we demonstrate that the volume of communication between ego and its transient alters does not display such a systematic decay, instead showing a lack of any dominant trends. This means that the communication volume of egos to groups of similar transient alters is stable. We show that alters with longer lifetimes in ego's network receive more calls, with the lifetime of the relationship being predictable from call volume within the first few weeks of first contact. This is observed across all three countries, which include samples of egos at different life stages. The relation between early call volume and lifetime is consistent with the suggestion that individuals initially engage with a new alter so as to evaluate their potential as a tie in terms of homophily.