Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal

TL;DR

This paper extends a fractional-order COVID-19 model for Portugal to analyze the third wave, incorporating optimal control strategies like vaccination and prevention, and evaluates their cost-effectiveness.

Contribution

It introduces a corrected fractional model for the third wave of COVID-19 in Portugal and formulates an optimal control problem with vaccination and prevention measures.

Findings

The model accurately describes the third wave dynamics.

Optimal control strategies reduce infection rates effectively.

Cost-effectiveness analysis supports policy decisions.

Abstract

A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time dimensions and use it to investigate the third wave of COVID-19 that occurred in Portugal from December 2020 to February 2021, and that has surpassed all previous waves, both in number and consequences. A new fractional optimal control problem is then formulated and solved, with vaccination and preventive measures as controls. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, and the obtained results are discussed.